Monday, May 13, 2013

Where Are All the Tornadoes?


So far this month, we have a preliminary tornado count of only 14. According to Dr. Greg Forbes, meteorologist at The Weather Channel, that number should be around 96. That’s the number we normally see for the first ten days of May (when looking at data for the last 10 years). 


 It’s not just May either. When you look back to March and April, those months were also way below normal. April 2013 only had 73 tornadoes, but we average 234. Prior to that, in March of 2013, we had a near record low month! The average for March is 98, and we only had 17, making it the 5th lowest count for March on record!


There is even better news…..according to Harold Brooks, a research meteorologist from the National Severe Storms Laboratory, from May 2012 through April 2013 there were only 7 tornado deaths in the U.S., which is the fewest number of fatalities in a 12 month period since September 1899-August 1900 when there were only 5 fatalities. 
In Iowa specifically, they are close to breaking the longest stretch in history without a reported tornado: 354 days. That’s right; the last time a tornado was reported in Iowa was back on May 24th, 2012. The record is 355 days, which means tomorrow they would tie it, and Wednesday they would break the record. The current record of 355 days was set between May 5, 1955 and April 26th, 1956. The thing you have to note here is that back in 1955-1956, tornadoes were not as widely reported as they are now. There may have actually been one during that stretch, but if it happened in a field, or did not cause damage, it may not have been reported. That is much different now, so for the record to possibly be broken in this day of technology, it’s very impressive. 



With just 2 tornadoes in May 2013 through today (both rated EF0 in FL). The first 6 days in May of this year only had 2 tornadoes, which makes it the fourth-quietest for those days since 1950. And note, those 2 tornadoes were in Florida, and only received an EF0 rating, the lowest on the scale.
Number   Year
  0           1970
  0           1962
  1           1952
  2           **2013 **
  2           2011
  3           1951
  5           1986
  5           1966
  7           1957



Sources: NSSL, The Weather Channel, NOAA, Associated Press, SPC, Iowa Environmental Mesonet, Twitter

Friday, May 3, 2013

First American Tornado Chaser


When you hear “Ben Franklin” you likely think of a politician, an author, inventor, and a scientist, just to name a few. Even though Franklin technically had no background or education in weather, he made many advancements in the field of meteorology, including determining the general directions in which storms travel, how temperature affects electric conductivity, how volcanic eruptions affect climate, weather pertaining to oceanography, and we all know about his infamous “discovery of electricity” when he flew a kite into a lightning storm.

While trying to see an eclipse, Franklin realized, accidentally, that in North America large storms tended to move from southwest to northeast. The reason this was a shocker, and that nobody else in the colonies seemed to notice, was because in Europe this isn’t always the case. Many storms can actually come from the Northwest.

One of Franklins lesser known titles was “tornado-chaser”. It all started after a series of waterspouts in Italy back in 1749. Waterspouts are not uncommon there, but one in particular did something that the others had not done before…it came onshore.

Many of the residents of this badly damaged Italian coastal town became paranoid, thinking this was the end of the world, and that surely the apocalypse was near. In order to calm fears, the Pope ordered a very well-known natural philosopher, Father Ruder Boscovich, to investigate, and print his results in a book. In his book were details of the trail of ruin, interviews with survivors and eyewitnesses, and also extensive research in the Vatican Library on similar meteorological events.

Franklin began receiving copies of Father Boscovich’s book. Many colleagues started asking Franklin what his thoughts were, so he started his own investigation. Never having personally seen one himself, he researched travelers’ tales, historical documents, and the diaries of officers and sailors on ships who had witnessed them firsthand. As he read through all these papers, he quickly realized that the common theory that waterspouts were made out of water, not air, could not possibly be true. The sheer weight of the water would not allow for a force to either raise or sustain such a large body of it in midair. But the big question remained....if it wasn’t water, why did it look like it was? After more research, Franklin came to the conclusion that it only appeared to be made of water because of fog that was condensing around the waterspout.

After all of this came to light, Franklin’s biggest “discovery” was that if the waterspout truly was made out of air rather than water, then the long-held belief that waterspouts only remained over water was false. In theory, if all they are made of is air, then they should be just as likely to happen over land as they would be to happen over water. Finding the evidence to prove this however, wasn’t quite as easy.

He found the best piece of information through a published piece out of the Yorkshire countryside in England. It described in detail what it looked like, and described the minor damage to village rooftops. What caused them? Why did some last longer than others? Could they occur anywhere, or just certain parts of the world? These are the questions that plagued Franklin for quite some time.

Sensing Franklin’s frustration, a colleague, Colonel Tasker invited Franklin and his son William to stay with him at his home in the countryside of Maryland. On their way was a dusty, winding road winding, and all of a sudden someone noticed a tight little column of air: a newly forming “tornado”. I put that word in quotes because back then they were not called tornadoes. They were referred to as landspouts or whirlwinds most frequently.

Franklin wrote in his research that it resembled a sugar-loaf funnel, with an odd, irregular bob and swerve like a spinning top. It swayed across the hillside and began to come right at them. At that point everyone but Franklin started to head backwards away from the funnel. Franklin later said he couldn’t help himself; he just had to get closer. Just as he began to chase the funnel it turned and changed course into the woods. Franklin decided to follow it further into the woods, but noticed the wind was getting louder. As he got closer he noticed the funnel was picking up everything in sight: leaves, branches, etc. He also noted that the whirlwind was bending and snapping trees as though they were mere twigs. At this point Franklin decided he best stay put for his own safety. Moments later the funnel just dissolved into nothing as it moved into an old tobacco field.

While he never officially used the word “tornado” in any of his research, he certainly was the first real “tornado chaser”.

Sources: NWS, Daily Beast, PBS, Britanica (first photo), Weatherwise Magazine (second photo--the first known photo of a tornado)