Thursday, June 7, 2012

6/7/12 Let Hurricane Season Begin!

Every year, when Atlantic Hurricane Seasons begins, I always put out the list of names for both basins (Atlantic and eastern Pacific), and try to determine what strength they will be and where they might hit based off of the names alone. There is nothing scientific about this process, just simply some fun. (A few storms were named prior to the seasons actually starting, so I will not put anything under those).



Atlantic Names:
Alberto- already happened so this would be cheating
Beryl- already happened so this would be cheating
Chris- I see this hitting Mexico, badly. Strong category 4, but doesn't quite make it to a Category 5.
Debby- Gibson. I grew up in the 80s, so this is vivid in my mind. Cat 1.
Ernesto- I remember the other Ernesto from 2006, and that one did some damage, so I will say Cat 2.
Florence- Henderson. Mom from Brady Bunch couldn't hurt a fly. Tropical Storm.
Gordon- This will hit Florida, but will only be a tropical storm.
Helene- Despite the sweet name, this will be our first , but only Cat 5 of the season.
Isaac- I picture this being a changer. Cat 1 up to Cat 3 for a day, then back down to Cat 1 before landfall.
Joyce- This sounds sweet and innocent, but it will end up as a Cat 4.
Kirk- I know this dates me, but I think of Kirk Cameron in Growing Pains. Mild Cat 1.
Leslie- I think of Leslie Nielsen, and some of my favorite movies. He probably would have wanted a storm named after him. Large, but not too strong, Cat 3.
Michael- This is my fiance's name, so this is a no win guess :)
Nadine- This one will hit nowhere. Just slugs along in the Atlantic Ocean. Tropical Storm.
Oscar- Sounds like a sweet old grandpa, tropical storm.
Patty- Labelle. Big and powerful, but not destructive. Probably a large Cat 1, but only minor damage.
Rafael- We probably won't make it this far, but if we did, this could be a surprise strong Cat 2.
Sandy- We wont get this far down the list, but if we did, this would be tropical storm.
Tony- I think of Tony Soprano, so this might end up being a Cat 2, despite being late in the season.
Valerie- We wont get this far down the list, but if we did, this would be tropical storm.
William- Prince William is what I think of. He is handsome and nice, so a tropical storm at best.

Eastern Pacific Names:
Aletta- already happened so this would be cheating
Bud- already happened so this would be cheating
Carlotta- There have been 9 named Carlottas, but almost all of them avoided landfall. Consistency. This will be a Cat 1, but no landfall.
Daniel- Big storms always usually strike Pacific before Atlantic, so this will be a Cat 4.
Emilia- This will hit Baja California, but will only be a tropical storm.
Fabio- All I can think of is the obvious....Fabio. Can't take this seriously. Tropical Storm.
Gilma- I picture this being the first Cat 5 of the season.
Hector- I see this one going rogue, and hitting Hawaii, but only minor damage. Cat 1 at best.
Ileana- Sounds exotic....but it will do some minor damage. Cat 2.
John- Simple name, but so many things could go wrong here. This will be the second, and last Cat 5.
Kristy- This sounds nice and innocent, but it will end up as a Cat 4.
Lane- This one will be quick to form, and quick to die out, but will make it to Cat 2 strength.
Miriam- I picture this as a little old lady storm. Tropical storm, but it sticks around for a whole 5 days.
Norman- Sounds like a sweet old grandpa, tropical storm.
Olivia- I think of Olivia from Law & Order, she's a bad**s so this one will be a strong Cat 2.
Paul- I think of the alien movie Paul. This will be a Category 2 that pops up out of nowhere!
Rosa- We probably wont get this far down the list, but if we did, I could see this being a Cat 3.
Sergio- I just like saying this name. I hope we make it this far down the list just to say it. Cat 1.
Tara- Probably won't make it this far, but it could end up being a tropical storm that hits Mexico.
Vicente- Not sure how to pronounce, so it will be tricky. Weak Cat 2, down to tropical storm in 24 hours.
Willa- We wont get this far down the list, but if we did, this would be tropical storm.
Xavier- I grew up in Cincinnati, so I think of the University. They seem to have a lot of comebacks in basketball, so maybe a Cat 2 late season storm.
Yolanda- We probably wont get this far down the list, but if we did, this would be tropical storm.
Zeke- We wont get this far down the list, but if we did, this would be a weak tropical storm.

Below is a map of every tropical cyclone that formed between 1985-2005:

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