1/30/12 Record January Tornadoes?

So far, based off of recent storm surveys and the Storm Prediction Center's monthly tornado statistics page, there have now been a preliminary 71 tornadoes this January, with 65 of them confirmed. January's total of 71 estimated tornadoes is almost three times the average of 24 in January during the past 10 years. Compared to previous years, this puts January 2012 in third place:

1.  212    Jan 1999

2.    84    Jan 2008

3.    71    Jan 2012 (preliminary not confirmed)

So why such a bad start to the year with tornadoes? Why so many? Many researchers have examined potential links to El Nino and La Nina. Results have differed due to a mixture of geographical regions where the studies were conducted. What we do know is that we are in a La Nina period right now, and it will likely persist at least into the spring.

What the results did find was that there was a tendency for large tornado outbreaks during La Nina episodes during the January through April months. Whereas, El Nino episodes have tended to have large tornado outbreaks from May through December. Of the eleven largest tornado outbreaks since 1950 during the  months of Jan-April, six events were during La Nina, 3 during El Nino, and 2 during neutral conditions. While these results are not staggering, they do suggest, but not guarantee, above-average tornado activity in January-April. Historically, but not always, this activity occurs mainly in the Gulf Coast, Southeast, Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley states. So, since we are in a La Nina cycle right now, and our January preliminary results put us at #3 for tornado counts, does that mean that we will continue to see more tornadoes for sure through April?

Below is an image of damage from a tornado in Fordyce, Arkansas on January 22:

What you have to understand is that tornado outbreaks are primarily driven by moving weather systems (low pressure systems, fronts, and upper-air disturbances) which operate on much shorter time scales than El Nino or La Nina would. Where El Nino and La Nina cycles come into play is perhaps how bad an outbreak will be. La Nina can also impact where those traveling weather systems go (push them farther north, south, etc). So, La Nina can have an impact on where the system might go, and how bad it will be, but La Nina cannot necessarily create tornado outbreaks on it's own.

Below is a breakdown of the confirmed and preliminary tornadoes for the month of January. The preliminary ones are listed because they have not been confirmed yet, but could be once the storm surveys are complete.

Jan 9    6:  TX(6) confirmed;
Jan 12   3:  NC(3) confirmed;
Jan 17  12:  IN(5), KY(4), TN(1), MS(1) confirmed; MS(1) preliminary
Jan 21   3:  GA(3) confirmed
Jan 22  12:  AR(7), MS(2), KY(2), TN(1) confirmed
Jan 23  14:  AL(11) confirmed; AL (1), TN (1), MS(1) preliminary
Jan 24   2:  TX(2) preliminary
Jan 25  15:  TX(12), LA(2), MS(1) confirmed
Jan 26   3:  MS(1), LA(1), AL (1) confirmed
Jan 27   1:  FL(1) confirmed

Total: 71 (65 confirmed; 6 preliminary)

Sources: NOAA, Storm Prediction Center, The Weather Channel